Why Saba-Saba Rally is Over-rated

cordIt’s all just like shares trading at the stock market. Sometimes speculators like driving the prices so high using their buying powers or leveraging on some irrelevant piece of news in order to serve their interests. But no matter how high the price goes, the fundamentals ultimately will correct the share price in the long-term; to align it with its qualitative and the quantitative characteristics.

And so is the CORD rally on Monday at Uhuru Park. The speculators are having their good time now, until the reality dawns on them as the fundamentals shape in on Monday.

With only two days to go, the most hyped Saba-Saba rally by the CORD coalition at Uhuru Park attracts more attention than the previous days. Both the mainstream and social media have dedicated a good portion of their space and time to discuss this rally more than Christians are spending time discussing the second coming of Christ.

But in my own personal opinion, the whole thing is overrated; and this is why..

First I consider the location where and the day when the event will be held. Being a one location event only in Nairobi, I guess not as many people would attend it and voice as much criticism to the government as CORD would wish to do; had it been in several locations simultaneously country wide. Again it shall be on a Monday which is a working day; and many Kenyans being as hard working as they are, they shall be up and about pursuing their economic interests rather than political agenda from their leaders. That by itself kills the numbers and calms down the “storm” predicted by the CORD politicians.

Precedence can be used to better predict future trends. CORD promised to hold country-wide rallies where citizens would raise their concerns to the government and speak out their hearts with passion. But as we speak today, the rallies that were held did not have any significant difference from the usual political rallies. Though addressing specific agenda, the rallies were not as steamed–up as one would expect going by the stern declaration by CORD at Uhuru Park when “baba” came back. I would expect nothing different on Monday either; just the common euphoric speeches then people will go back to their homes in the evening.

Finally, the best CORD can do on Monday is lament at Uhuru Park and go back to their beautiful houses in the evening. Until the government agrees to sit down with CORD, nothing significant will emerge from Monday’s rally. I am not a political strategist and my view of political maneuvers may be myopic, but from where I stand I see a day like any other on Monday. To me Monday will be just a normal rally like we had in other towns country wide, with the difference being the venue.

And to my brothers and sisters who are scared of violence on Monday, you need to understand we have a running government. 2007/2008 PEV occurred during a transition of power not when the government was solidly in place. As such, we expect full government protection for its citizens as it is their constitutional mandate, thereby blowing away any imagined chaos on Monday.

Cheers and be peaceful..#WeAreOne

 

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